Crude oil prices today are a touch firmer. The Vantage USOUSD CFD (WTI) trades near $69.44 a barrel and the Vantage UKOUSD CFD (Brent) near $72.05, as of 09:00 (GMT+8) on 3 July 2026, both up from four-month lows touched earlier this week.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to recover, reducing supply concerns alongside improving US-Iran diplomacy and expectations for further OPEC+ production increases. This commodities news piece covers the technical picture on the oil price chart and the current fundamental backdrop.

Key Points

• WTI and Brent crude oil prices today have eased back from four-month lows, tied to improving Hormuz shipping, US-Iran diplomacy, and OPEC+ output expectations rather than one single driver.
• The USOUSD and UKOUSD oil price charts both show a bounce off an oversold RSI reading, based on the TradingView setup used for this analysis.
• Markets continue monitoring regional geopolitical developments, including the funeral proceedings for Iran’s former Supreme Leader (4 to 9 July) and ongoing US-Iran diplomatic engagement.

What the oil price chart is showing

WTI Crude Oil (USOUSD)

The WTI crude oil price fell sharply this week, slipping toward $67.00 around 1 July 2026, where the RSI (14) on the TradingView setup used for this analysis dropped into oversold territory. Price has since recovered by almost $2.50, trading near $69.44. The 50-period moving average, at 68.845, and the 200-period moving average, at 68.722, sit almost on top of each other, while RSI (14) has climbed back to 72.20, above its own moving average of 64.09.

Brent Crude Oil (UKOUSD)

The Brent crude oil price has followed a similar pattern. Brent oil fell from an intraweek high above $74.50 to a low near $69.50, before recovering to trade near $72.05. The 50-period moving average sits at 71.536 and the 200-period at 71.061, both just below the current price, while RSI (14) at 74.23 sits above its moving average of 68.91 on the TradingView setup used for this analysis. Like WTI, Brent now trades above both moving averages with RSI in overbought territory, although the broader trend remains uncertain.

Oil news today: why crude oil prices slipped to a four-month low

The pullback reflects several factors, not one single driver. A Reuters poll of 31 economists published on 30 June showed analysts lowered their 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the conflict began, reflecting easing supply concerns as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz improved^[1]. Diplomatic contact between Washington and Tehran has continued, and OPEC+ is reported to be weighing a further August output increase, matching June and July hikes^[3].

US crude inventories remain relatively tight after recent drawdowns, though the broader supply recovery and holiday positioning have outweighed that. Coverage on 26 June 2026 noted both benchmarks settled below $70 for the first time since 27 February 2026, even as a vessel came under attack in the Gulf of Oman^[2]. See all latest oil price news here.

The Khamenei funeral and diplomatic backdrop

Markets continue monitoring regional geopolitical developments, including state funeral ceremonies for Iran’s former Supreme Leader, running from 4 to 9 July 2026 across Tehran, Qom, and Mashhad^[4], and ongoing US-Iran diplomatic engagement. Heightened security in Iran during this period is likely to keep markets attentive to further developments.

Tehran continues to signal willingness to influence shipping through the Strait of Hormuz during periods of heightened tension, although the waterway remains open to international transit^[1]. The broader question for markets is whether the improvement in shipping conditions and diplomatic progress can outweigh expectations of additional OPEC+ supply.

Levels to watch and risk considerations

The table below sets out levels traders are watching on the Vantage CFD feed. These are reference points, not signals.

Table 1: Key levels as of 09:00 (GMT+8), 3 July 2026. Source: Vantage CFD feed, TradingView. Indicative only.

On WTI, price is testing immediate resistance around 69.45, with the 200-period moving average near 68.72 sitting close to the 50-period average just below current price. On Brent, the 71.00 to 71.50 band carries similar weight.

Volatility linked to Middle East headlines has stayed elevated in recent months, with the funeral period a further point of interest. Stop Loss placement around these levels matters more than usual. Leverage is a double-edged tool that can magnify losses as easily as gains, and position sizing relative to account equity is worth revisiting ahead of the long weekend, when liquidity can thin out.

What to watch this week

• Khamenei funeral proceedings, 4 to 9 July 2026: heightened security in Iran during continued US-Iran diplomatic contact.
• US Independence Day holiday, 4 July 2026: thinner liquidity around the long weekend can widen intraday swings on the Vantage CFD feed.
• OPEC+ meeting on production quotas: any confirmation of a further August output increase, following similar increases in June and July 2026.

Closing considerations

Given how quickly both charts have moved this week, traders monitoring open exposure on USOUSD or UKOUSD CFDs may want to review Stop Loss placement against the levels above, particularly with OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical headlines continuing to drive intraday volatility.

Leverage remains a double-edged tool that can affect gains and losses equally. Position sizing relative to account equity remains a consistent way traders manage risk amid commodity market news like this.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

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References

[1] “Economists agree: 2026 oil price forecasts lowered as Strait of Hormuz shipping improves – Reuters poll via FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/economists-agree-2026-oil-price-forecasts-lowered-as-strait-of-hormuz-shipping-improves-reuters-poll-202606301301 Accessed on 3 July 2026.

[2] “Oil prices fall as more tankers exit Strait of Hormuz – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/26/oil-prices-middle-east-iran-strait-of-hormuz-opec-iraq-wti-brent-crude.html Accessed on 3 July 2026.

[3] “OPEC+ likely to raise oil output targets from August again, sources say – Reuters via Kitco News” https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-07-01/opec-likely-raise-oil-output-targets-august-again-sources-say Accessed on 3 July 2026.

[4] “Iran: officials announce dates for Ali Khamenei funeral and burial – Euronews” https://www.euronews.com/2026/06/13/iran-officials-announce-dates-for-ali-khamenei-funeral-and-burial Accessed on 3 July 2026.