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* Stocks buoyed by rate cut expectations, up four days in a row

* Dollar soft again on pressured by potentially Hassett at the Fed helm

* RBNZ cut rates by 25bps, could be the last in the cycle

* GBP thrives on UK Budget as investors welcome more headroom

FX: USD was lower again for a fourth straight day but comes after mild consolidation near recent highs. The Dollar Index moved down through the 200-day SMA 99.77. Prices have hit the upward trendline from the late September low. The 10-year yield stuck around the psychologically important 4% level. December Fed rate cut bets are now locked in after the big move over the weekend. The Fed’s Williams kicked off the move and we now have news that Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to take up the Fed Chair next year. He is a well known dove and advocates aggressive rate cuts, prioritizing growth of inflation control. That is music to President Trump’s ears, though Hassett has previously stressed the importance of a fully independent central bank. Data was mixed with better initial jobless claims but disappointing Chicago PMI.

EUR was midpack with much focus on the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. This is a rate differential play so some optimism could smooth the recovery in the euro above 1.17. President Trump thinks that they are getting very close to a deal, while making progress and Ukraine is happy. Trump also said Europe will be largely involved in security guarantees. The 50-day SMA sits above at 1.1626.

GBP was well bid in what many called a relief rally after the UK Budget. We called it a ‘rumour/fact type event’ as Gilt yields edged lower through the day in a sign that bond markets were relatively unmoved by the Chancellor’s fiscal plans. For sterling, the Budget was not especially contractionary in the short term and didn’t cause a major reprice of the BoE terminal rate. Higher headroom was taken positively initially though austerity is seemingly pushed out in what some called just ‘kicking the can’ down the road. Cable bulls will aim for the 200-day SMA at 1.3303. If the double bottom reversal pattern plays out, the target is closer to 1.34.

JPY underperformed as the yen weakened even on overnight hawkish-leaning BoJ sources overnight. The bank is reportedly preparing markets for a possible hike as soon as December, although one of the sources noted that the decision between hiking in December or January remained a close call. PM Takaichi said the stimulus package isn’t reckless spending and they will watch FX for any speculative moves. The major moved above 156 into today’s data.

US stocks: The S&P 500 added 0.65%, closing at 6,810. The benchmark index is up 4 straight days and is enjoying the biggest 4-day % win streak of 4.2% since late April. It is now just 1.15 off record highs at 6,890. The Nasdaq moved higher by 0.87% to finish at 25,237. The Dow settled higher by 0.67% at 47,427. Tech was one of the clear outperformers with Utilities leading the gainers, but Communication Services lagged with AI names trading higher after recent pressure, although Alphabet gave up some of its recent rally, weighing on the sector as it neared the $4 trillion market cap mark. Oracle jumped 4% after an investment bank reiterated its buy rating. Deere & Co tumbled 5.7% after it issued downbeat guidance below expectations.

Asian stocks: Futures are mixed. Stocks were mostly higher again on the Wall Street rally. The ASX 200 was led higher by mining and materials with tech and telecoms lagging. The Nikkei 225 jumped with Softbank leading the way, though there were reports the BoJ is preparing markets for a possible hike as soon as December. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite underperformed their regional peers with mixed earnings from Alibaba and NIO. The former’s CEO did push back against AI bubble chat and confirmed a pick up in investment.

Gold moved over 1% higher in the early part of the day before giving up gains into the US session. Prices tapped a minor fib level (23.6%) of the September break higher at $4,173 which acted as resistance. A few big banks upped their 2026 price forecasts citing more central bank buying.

Day Ahead – Tokyo CPI

This data is the forerunner to nationwide inflation and is forecast to rise 2.7% y/y in November. Solid wage gains and the weaker yen likely added upward pressure. There’s only around a 16% chance of a December BoJ rate hike. Otherwise, recent nationwide CPI inflation excluding fresh food increased a bit to 3.0%, confirming the uptick from the prior Tokyo data. The weak yen will continue to push for high import prices, which adds to speculation that the Bank of Japan will soon hike rates again.

New PM Takaichi recently approved a supplementary budget worth JPY21.3 trillion, representing the largest stimulus package since the pandemic. The runup to this has weighed heavy on the yen and pushed longer-dated Japanese Government bond yields higher.

Chart of the Day – GBP/JPY upside breakout

This very popular cross has just broken to new highs last seen in July 2024.  After trading around 200 for some time, prices pushed higher in early October above 205 before trading sideways and then falling back below the psychological 200 marker. November has seen strong bullish momentum this month with the pair pushing above the October top at 205.31. Bulls will target that July 2024 high at 208.12. A minor Fib level sits at 202.12.

Here are the share CFD dividends that will be paid out from 26 November 2025：

* Stocks advance as US yields decline and Nvidia tanks on competition

* Dollar slides on soft data and improved Fed rate cut chances

* RBNZ expected to cut rates to 2.25%, economists speculate if the last

* GBP jumps ahead of UK Budget and Chancellor Reeves big Budget day

FX: USD broke down as retail sales figures from September disappointed so continuing to paint a soft consumer spending picture. Other data was also mixed with consumer confidence poor and ADP negative once again on the new weekly print. The Dollar Index fell through the 200-day SMA at 99.81. December Fed rate bets increased further to around an 85% chance, up from the low 30%s last week. We note that WSJ Fedwatcher Timiraos said on X “allies have laid the groundwork for Fed Chair Powell to push through a cut if he wants one – then signal more cuts aren’t likely under current conditions”. A phone call between Presidents Trump and Xi was positive, amid ongoing potentially positive Ukraine/Russia peace plan talks.

EUR was the third best major as buyers look to take the world’s most popular currency pair up to 1.16. ECB messaging remains neutral though there will some attention on Friday’s countrywide inflation data. The 50-day SMA sits above at 1.1631.

GBP was the top performing major ahead of crucial Budget Day. EUR/GBP one-week implied volatility is trading at the highest relative gap since the 2022 Mini Budget. This signals that despite some recovery in gilts, the currency market remains concerned about the risk event. Cable has broken the downward trendline from the September high. See below for more detail on the Budget.

JPY outperformed all of its peers apart from sterling. The 10-month high in the major sits at 157.89. Expectations for a December BoJ rate hike have recently increased to around 35% as the head of Japan’s biggest union called on the government to step up its efforts to fight inflation. We also had more verbal intervention overnight warning that officials are concerned about yen weakness.

US stocks: The S&P 500 added 0.91%, closing at 6,766. The Nasdaq moved higher by 0.58% to finish at 25,018. The Dow settled higher by 1.43% at 47,112.  The tech-laden Nasdaq underperformed though it did manage to pare losses initially seen, as Nvidia recovered but still ended the day in the red. Sectors overall were predominantly in the green, with Health and Consumer Discretionary leading, and Utilities and Energy in the red. The latter was hit by weakness in crude oil amid relatively positive Ukraine/Russia peace deal developments. Alphabet hit a fresh record high as it neared the $4 trillion market cap milestone. The latest move came on reports Meta would spend billions of dollars on Alphabet-owned chips for use in its data centres, starting in 2027. Alibaba reported revenue, net income, & cloud revenue beats, driven by China’s AI development boom, but the stock closed 2.3% lower.

Asian stocks: Futures are mixed. Stocks were mostly higher on the tech-led Wall Street rally. The ASX 200 moved north with mining gains offsetting financials and defensives. The Nikkei 225 initially rallied but gave back those gains on its holiday return. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite were supported by the positive Trump-Xi call. Many topics were said to be discussed including Ukraine/Russia, fentanyl, soybeans and Taiwan.

Gold printed a narrow range doji candle with prices making an 11-day high before paring gains and closing virtually unchanged on the day. Treasury yields dipped, with the 10-year touching 4%.

Day Ahead – Australia CPI, RBNZ Meeting

Australia October inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 3.5%. Economists say that October is traditionally a softer month while falling electricity and rents should limit the monthly increase. Offsetting this is likely to be still firm rents and dwelling inflation. This release is the first under the new CPI framework.

Money markets expect the RBNZ to cut the OCR by 25bps to 2.25%. Is this the terminal rate, is the key question. A data dependent stance is likely in 2026 with recent mixed. Inflation picked up with mean CPI closer to the 2% midpoint, but unemployment edged higher to a nine-year top with no job growth in Q3. An updated statement with projections will be published at this meeting. If no more cuts are signalled, NZD should find a bid with the 40bps of easing priced into 2026 potentially pared back.

Chart of the Day – GBP/USD reversal pattern forming?

After the months of speculation and gossip, we finally get to hear what’s in the UK Autumn Budget. For the pound, sentiment remains weak but it does feel like a lot of bad news is in the price already. Is it a case of buy the rumour, sell the fact? Key will be how front loaded the ‘smorgasbord’ of tax hikes are and how realistic the filling of the fiscal gap is. Cable may have bottomed out just above 1.30 earlier this month and a possible minor double bottom pattern is now forming,  which could imply a reversal. Yesterday’s sharp move higher also broke the downward trendline and potentially the bear channel from the September peak. A measured move with a break of the neckline in the pattern around 1.32 could mean upside towards 1.34. That said, the 50-day SMA is crossing down through the 200-day SMA which is bearish (‘death cross’), though this can be a lagging indicator.

Here are the share CFD dividends that will be paid out from 25 November 2025：

Here are the share CFD dividends that will be paid out from 24 November 2025：

* Stocks surge, US yields fall as Fed rate cut bets increase

* Wall Street ends higher on tech rebound, Alphabet hits fresh record highs

* Gold rises as Fed easing expectations ramp up

* Kremlin aide expects direct US-Russia contact on plan soon

FX: USD tracked sideways for a third straight day, printing an inside candle. That denotes consolidation and some indecision. The 200-day SMA sits below at 99.85. Friday saw NY Fed President Williams’ dovish comments on the rate outlook Friday – he saw room for a rate cut in the “near term – have had an outsized impact on rate expectations. Money markets have moved from pricing in less than 10bps of easing (40% chance) to more than 20bps (80%+ chance) at the December FOMC meeting. Williams is a leading member at the Fed, but some are questioning such a large move, when other officials still appear not to back a rate move next month. The Ukraine-Russia peace plan continues with a seemingly long way to go to any kind of concrete agreement.

EUR was very mildly bid in quiet FX trade. The German IFO business sentiment figures were largely in line with expectations and largely unchanged from the prior month. This week’s data highlight will be the German CPI figures scheduled for Friday. Near-term support is around 1.15 with this month’s swing low at 1.1468.

GBP was ticked higher in a narrow range day for a third day in a row. The downward trendline from the September top sits around the August low and major fib level (38.2%) of this year’s rally at 1.3140. The 50-day SMA looks like it is going to fall below the 200-day SMA which would form a bearish death cross signal. All eyes are on Wednesday’s Budget with more leaked plans for the many minor tax hikes that are predicted.

JPY underperformed its peers but printed an inside day after Friday’s fall in the major. The 10-year Treasury yield fell for a third straight day, nearing 4%. But the dollar has completely disconnected from yield spreads and broader fundamentals.   

US stocks: The S&P 500 added 1.55%, closing at 6,705. The Nasdaq moved higher by 2.62% to finish at 24,874. The Dow settled up 0.44% at 46,448.  Communications jumped 3.9%, led by Alphabet after more upbeat commentary on its latest AI updates (Gemini 3) which saw it hit more record highs. Tech gained about 2.5%, led by Broadcom surging +11%, and consumer discretionary gained 2.0%. Alibaba jumped over 5% as its relaunched Qwen AI surpassed 10mn downloads in its first week.  Tesla added over 6.8% after Elon Musk announced to grow its AI chips business. Novo Nordisk sunk more than 5.8% after Ozempic failed Alzheimer’s trials, while Eli Lilly added 1% to hit more record highs, after it joined the $1 trillion market cap last week. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are nearing their 50-day SMAs at 6,709 and 24,947 respectively.

Asian stocks: Futures are green. Stocks were mostly positive after the better day Stateside. The ASX 200 saw tech and industrials outperform with mixed M&A news. Qube surged to a record high on Macquarie Asset Management’s fresh takeover proposal. Conversely, BHP shares trickled lower after it was reported to have made a renewed approach for Anglo American, which was rejected. The Nikkei 225 was closed for a Japan holiday. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite were mixed with tech gains after President Trump’s team internally floating the idea of selling Nvidia chips to China.

Gold pushed offthe major Fib retracement level (38.2%) of the early September break to the record high in November at $4,044. The next minor Fib level is at 4,173. Bullion gained 1.8% as Treasury yields moved lower as Fed rate cut bets increased.

Day Ahead – US Retail Sales

This is important data as it will give us an insight into the US consumer and consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of US economic activity. That said, it is the delayed September data so slightly stale. Consensus expects the headline to rise 0.4% versus the prior 0.6%, the core at 0.3% and the control group at 0.3%, previously 0.7%.

Lower and higher income groups appear to be diverging in a tale of two consumers, with the latter benefiting from wealth effects. It’s Black Friday this week which heralds the start of the important holiday shopping season. Black Friday is the day after Thanksgiving that ushers in holiday sales and arrives as data has shown consumer sentiment slumping and inflation staying firm. 

Chart of the Day – Apple could be bullish consolidation mode

News that Apple was cutting thousands of jobs across its sales orgnaisation was a very rare layoff signal from the iPhone maker. Chartwise, prices have consolidated in recent weeks though price action has been strong over the last two days, having traded at the bottom of the recent range around $265 in the latter part of last week. The stock also touched the lower part of the bull channel seen since lows in the summer. Bulls have enjoyed the rebound off that support to the top end of the range, just below the record high at $277.32.  More bullish momentum could take the stocks to a fresh all-time top.