The Vantage EUR/USD CFD traded near 1.14083 as of 07:24 (UTC) / 15:24 (GMT+8) on 13 July 2026, based on the TradingView setup used for this analysis. Whether you track the euro to USD exchange rate on a quote screen or the EUR/USD chart directly, the pair opened the week under pressure as the Middle East conflict escalated over the weekend, lifting demand for the dollar.

Key points

• The Vantage EUR/USD CFD traded near 1.14083 as of the cut-off, recovering from a session low close to 1.1380 after last week’s sharp decline.
• Price has reclaimed the 200-period moving average at 1.14016 but stays below the 50-period moving average at 1.14258, per the TradingView setup used for this analysis.
• The euro faces pressure from two sides: a firmer dollar tied to Middle East risk and Fed testimony, against an ECB that has already raised rates once on the same energy shock.

What the chart is showing

This EUR/USD forecast starts with the 15-minute chart, which shows a wide range over the past week. From near 1.1390 on 8 July, the pair tested the 1.1460–1.1465 area on two occasions before sellers took control into the weekend, then slid to a session low near 1.1380 on 12 July 2026, per the TradingView setup used for this analysis. Monday’s session has recovered part of that decline, with the most recent candle opening at 1.14083, ranging between 1.14065 and 1.14094, and closing at 1.14083, roughly flat.

The 50-period moving average sits at 1.14258 and the 200-period moving average at 1.14016, per the TradingView setup used for this analysis. Price has moved back above the 200-period average but stays below the 50-period line, consistent with a recovery inside a broader downtrend rather than a confirmed reversal. The Relative Strength Index (14, close) reads 58.53, with its moving-average overlay at 53.10, having rebounded from the low 20s during last week’s sell-off into neutral-to-firm territory, in line with the bounce off 1.1380.

What’s driving the dollar this week

EURUSD news this week centres on Fed testimony and inflation data landing on a live geopolitical shock. Dollar strength through the Asian session, visible on the US Dollar Index (DXY), reflected a combination of safe-haven demand, positioning ahead of key US inflation data and Fed testimony, with geopolitical tensions adding support. The US and Iran exchanged further strikes over the weekend, and Iran again threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, though shipping conditions remained contested and US officials disputed the claim.^[1] Brent crude rose in early Monday trading as the news broke.^[1]

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first semiannual testimony to Congress this week: House Financial Services Committee Tuesday, Senate Banking Committee Wednesday.^[2] June’s US CPI lands shortly before the House hearing, and June PPI follows Wednesday.^[3] Economists expect some easing in headline inflation, helped by lower fuel costs, though the conflict adds uncertainty; Warsh has already said inflation remains ‘too high’ even as officials grow more open-minded about AI-driven disinflation.^[2][4] See all EURUSD news today here.

Where the euro stands

The European Central Bank is not sitting on the sidelines through this shock either. The Governing Council raised its three key rates by 25 basis points on 17 June 2026, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, citing Middle East-driven inflation pressure.^[5] Staff projections were revised up to 3.0% for 2026 headline inflation, from a lower baseline in March.^[5]

The Governing Council’s next decision falls on 23 July 2026. Market pricing currently leans toward a pause, though Reuters reports investors are still positioning for a further hike in September if the conflict keeps energy costs elevated.^[6] Despite the ECB’s recent tightening, near-term market flows have favoured the US dollar amid geopolitical uncertainty, leaving this pair’s reaction so far tilted toward the US side.

Levels to watch and risk considerations

Based on the chart used for this analysis, near-term support sits around 1.1380, the area that capped last week’s sell-off, with the 200-period moving average at 1.14016 just underneath. On the upside, 1.1410 is a minor resistance, simply Monday’s early session high, while the more meaningful resistance sits at 1.1426, the 50-period moving average.

Table 1: Levels as of 07:24 (UTC) / 15:24 (GMT+8) on 13 July 2026. Source: the TradingView setup used for this analysis.

What to watch this week

• June CPI, 14 July 2026: Lands shortly before Warsh’s House testimony; a near-term driver of dollar direction.
• Fed Chair Warsh testimony, 14–15 July 2026: House Financial Services Committee Tuesday, Senate Banking Committee Wednesday.
• June PPI, 15 July 2026: Lands shortly before Warsh’s Senate appearance.
• ECB policy decision, 23 July 2026: The Governing Council’s next scheduled meeting after June’s rate rise.

Given how quickly this pair has swung between roughly 1.1380 and 1.1465 this past week, traders often monitor support and resistance when determining Stop Loss placement, such as the 1.1380 support band and the 1.1410–1.1426 resistance zone, rather than relying on typical intraday range assumptions in this headline-driven environment.

Leverage works both ways in a market like this, magnifying gains just as it can magnify losses. Position sizing relative to account equity is worth revisiting ahead of Tuesday’s inflation print and the ECB’s 23 July decision, especially for traders holding correlated dollar or euro exposure elsewhere. Live EUR/USD pricing and Vantage’s prior EURUSD coverage are also available.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

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References

[1] “Dollar jumps on renewed Middle East attacks, Hormuz closure – Reuters via Yahoo Finance” https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/currencies/articles/dollar-jumps-renewed-middle-east-004051619.html Accessed on 13 July 2026.

[2] “Warsh and US Inflation Will Set Tone for July Fed Decision – Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance” https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/warsh-us-inflation-set-tone-200000595.html Accessed on 13 July 2026.

[3] “What to Look Out for in Economic Data This Week (July 13-17) – Kiplinger” https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/this-weeks-economic-calendar Accessed on 13 July 2026.

[4] “Kevin Warsh, remarks at the ECB Forum, Sintra – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/kevin-warsh-ecb-forum-live-updates.html Accessed on 13 July 2026.

[5] “Monetary policy decisions, 11 June 2026 – European Central Bank” https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260611~4d41bd5e83.en.html Accessed on 13 July 2026.

[6] “ECB raises interest rates, as widely expected – Reuters via Investing.com” https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/ecb-raises-interest-rates-as-widely-expected-4737403 Accessed on 13 July 2026.