* President Trump quiet on potential use of force for Greenland

* EU seeks Greenland de-escalation while plotting tariff retaliation

* Dollar sinks as Trump tariff threats reignite trade war concerns

* Gold, silver hit record highs as geo-economic fears bid up safe havens

FX: USD’s upside move higher last week was reversed as the greenback suffered its worst day this year. Prices are back to the 50-day SMA at 98.99. President Trump’s escalation over Greenland and tariff threat of 10%, rising to 25% on eight European countries triggered a risk-off move. The ‘Sell America’ theme was also being talked about, and really the buck is lower on multiple concerns. Arguments on Wednesday in the case regarding the administration’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Cook will be heard. We may also get the Fed Chair nominee announcement, with Warsh now the clear favourite which is actually modestly dollar supportive.

EUR found support at the 200-day SMA at 1.1584. The Greenland spat has come at a time just when European industry is feeling better about itself with sentiment picking up. Does the zone play hard ball and even fire up the trade “bazooka” – the Anti-Coercion Instrument – a trade tool targeting taxes, tariffs and investment limits on countries trying to coerce the EU? Or does it continue with its seemingly failed appeasement strategy towards Donald Trump? The former would surely hasten a White House retreat.

GBP climbed back above the 200-day SMA, now at 1.3400 and was midpack in the majors. There’s a plethora of data this week including jobs today and inflation tomorrow. This will feed into the early BoE meeting and rate decision. The extent of cuts has been faded in recent weeks.

JPY was the underperformer even after early strength. A combination of haven flows and renewed fiscal concerns in Japan weighed on the major. Reports in the Japanese press said that Takaichi’s LDP and the new opposition party, the Centrist Reform Alliance, are planning to cut/suspend the sales tax. This lifted bond yields and added to the JPY strength. The pair then gave back the majority of its losses and closed above 158. The BoJ meeting is on Friday with no changes expected.

US stocks: Closed due to holiday. Results this week include Netflix (see below), Johnson & Johnson and Intel. Then next week we get a few of the Mag 7 including Tesla, Microsoft and Meta next Wednesday, and Apple on Thursday, all after the US close.

Asian stocks: Futures are mixed. APAC stocks were mostly in the red after Trump’s tariff threat. The ASX 200 posted small losses with gold gains offset by financials and IT weighing. The Nikkei 225 underperformed as yen strength came through on haven bids and domestic politics uncertainty. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as Hong Kong moved lower while the mainland held up, with GDP data hitting the annual 5% growth target.

Gold broke to the upside after pausing for a few days just below the recent record top. $4,700 is near, ahead of $5,000. Silver soared again on haven buying with a fresh record high at $94.67, with the huge psychological $100 barrier not far away.

Day Ahead – UK Jobs

It’s just past the middle of the month which means we get a data dump out of the UK this week. First up is the employment data which includes important wage growth figures that have stayed elevated for some time. Average earnings (ex-bonus) are forecast at 4.5%, but the downtrend in these numbers is expected to continue this year. Unemployment is expected to tick down one-tenth to 5% though there are big reliability concerns around these numbers, as there have been since the pandemic.

Chart of the Day – Netflix earnings after US close

Investors expect a solid but not game‑changing Netflix earnings report and update. Consensus looks for Q4 revenue of $12bn (+17% y/y) and EPS of $0.55, driven by price rises, strong content (hit series plus live sports) and rapid growth in the ad‑supported tier. The key issues are how fast advertising and password‑sharing crackdowns are boosting profits, what management guides for 2026 revenue growth (~13%) and margins, and any colour on the Warner Bros deal. The intensifying bidding battle for the latter has kept Netflix in the spotlight over the past month, with reports that the streamer is considering switching to an all-cash offer to secure the deal and fend off a rival offer from Paramount. The stock has slumped since hitting a record high in June at $134.12, with prices falling sharply after losing support around $113 and the 50-day SMA below $109. January and April 2025 lows around $82 could be decent support. The stock is expected to move +/- 7% on Thursday’s open according to options pricing.