The US Dollar Index (USDX) is trading near 101.37 on the Vantage USDX CFD as of 06:59 UTC (14:59 GMT+8), 25 June 2026, its strongest level since May 2025. The dollar index has climbed roughly 1.45% over the past week after the Federal Reserve turned hawkish at its June meeting. Today’s core PCE inflation data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is the sharpest near-term catalyst for the usdx chart.

All prices reference the Vantage USDX CFD. Chart data is from TradingView. This is not financial advice.^[1]

Key points

• The dollar index traded near 101.37 on 25 June 2026, a 13-month high. The MA200 stood at 101.332 and MA50 at 101.158, both below price, according to the TradingView setup used for this analysis.
• The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on 17 June 2026, but nine of 18 dot-plot participants now project at least one 2026 hike. Markets are pricing roughly a 70% probability of a September rate increase, up from approximately 29% the prior week.^[2][3]
• Core PCE inflation data is due today, 25 June 2026. The Fed raised its 2026 core PCE projection to 3.3% at the June meeting. A reading at or above that level reinforces current rate-hike pricing; a softer number tests it.^[4]

What the US dollar index chart shows

The 15-minute US dollar index chart for 22 to 25 June 2026 on the Vantage USDX CFD shows a sustained move from around 100.60 to the current 101.37 zone. Price stayed above the MA200 (101.332) and MA50 (101.158) for most of the period, with both moving averages rising and converging below price.

A short consolidation around 101.20 to 101.40 appeared on 24 June before a fresh push higher on 25 June. The session high stands at 101.378. A brief European-morning pullback on 25 June held above the MA200 before recovering. The RSI (14, close) reads 61.80 on the fast line and 46.18 on the RSI moving-average overlay as of 06:59 UTC, 25 June 2026, as per the TradingView setup used for this analysis. Mid-range, not overbought.

Three drivers behind the dollar index move

The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on 17 June 2026 in a unanimous 12-0 vote. The dot plot was the key policy signal: nine of 18 participants projected at least one hike in 2026, shifting the median year-end rate to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. New Chair Kevin Warsh stated the committee had “some work to do on the price stability front.” Markets responded by repricing September hike odds from approximately 29% to approximately 70%.^[2][3]

Recent inflation data has supported the Fed’s more hawkish outlook. US headline CPI hit 4.2% year-on-year in May 2026, driven by a 23.5% surge in energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. The Fed raised its 2026 core PCE forecast to 3.3% and does not see inflation returning to the 2% target before 2028.^[4][5]

Safe-haven demand likely provided additional support during periods of market volatility. A technology-sector sell-off on Wall Street during the week of 23 June pushed liquidity demand toward the US dollar index. The US-Iran 60-day ceasefire framework has eased Brent from above $110 per barrel, but the Fed’s inflation projections suggest service-sector inflation remains the harder problem, keeping dollar support intact.^[6][7]

Key levels on the USDX chart

Reference zones as of 06:59 UTC, 25 June 2026. Not trade signals.

*Table 1: Reference levels, 06:59 UTC, 25 June 2026. Sources: TradingView, Trading Economics. Indicative only.*

What to watch

• Core PCE Inflation, 25 June 2026: Due today. Fed’s 2026 core projection is 3.3%. A reading at or above this level reinforces September hike pricing; a softer print tests it.^[1][4]
• US Q1 GDP (final), 26 June 2026: Confirms the growth backdrop behind the Fed’s decision to hold rather than cut.^[8]
• Michigan Inflation Expectations (June final), 27 June 2026: Elevated consumer expectations add weight to the hike case.^[8]
• FOMC meeting, 29 to 30 July 2026: The next decision. Incoming data will set the direction of the dot-plot split.
• Middle East negotiations, ongoing: A breakdown in the 60-day US-Iran framework would likely reignite energy prices and safe-haven dollar demand.^[7]

Risk considerations

The US dollar index has reacted sharply to headlines this month. Today’s PCE release is a scheduled high-impact event. The 52-week high stands at 101.80; 101.00 and 100.60 are reference support zones from the chart. Stop Loss placement around these zones matters more than usual ahead of a data release. Traders holding positions across the dollar index, gold, and major USD pairs should review combined exposure before the print.

Leverage is a double-edged tool in CFD trading, amplifying both favourable and adverse moves. Position sizing relative to account equity warrants attention ahead of core PCE. Traders using leverage should ensure they fully understand the risks before adjusting exposure.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

References

[1] “Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index – U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis” https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index Accessed on 25 June 2026.

[2] “FOMC Statement June 17 2026 – Federal Reserve” https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm Accessed on 25 June 2026.

[3] “Fed Shifts to Hawkish Tune But Keeps Rates Steady – Charles Schwab” https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting Accessed on 25 June 2026.

[4] “FOMC Projections Materials June 17 2026 – Federal Reserve” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260617.htm Accessed on 25 June 2026.

[5] “Consumer Price Index Summary May 2026 – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm Accessed on 25 June 2026.

[6] “US Dollar Index Hits 13-Month High Above 100 – Yahoo Finance” https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/currencies/articles/us-dollar-index-hits-13-150000894.html Accessed on 25 June 2026.

[7] “US dollar index extended gains to 101.7 highest since March 2025 – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency Accessed on 25 June 2026.

[8] “US Dollar Index USDX Analysis June 22 2026 – Vantage Markets” https://www.vantage-markets-apac.com/market-analysis/dollar-index-dxy-usdx-hawkish-fed-rate-hike-june-22-2026/ Accessed on 25 June 2026.